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    \x0a It’s fine to tell people about hope and change, but you have to have plenty of concrete, pragmatic ideas that bring hope and change to life.\x0a
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    \x0a Perhaps the biggest factor behind the recent 18% drop in the price of a barrel of crude is sinking North American demand. Federal Highway Administration data show the number of miles driven in the U.S. dropped from year-ago levels for the seventh straight month in May.\x0a
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    \x0a The first wave of Americans to default on their home mortgages appears to be cresting, but a second, far larger one is quickly building.\x0a
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    \x0a Cheap oil, the lubricant of quick, inexpensive transportation links across the world, may not return anytime soon, upsetting the logic of diffuse global supply chains that treat geography as a footnote in the pursuit of lower wages. Rising concern about global warming, the reaction against lost jobs in rich countries, worries about food safety and security, and the collapse of world trade talks in Geneva last week also signal that political and environmental concerns may make the calculus of globalization far more complex.\x0a
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    \x0a Macro investors are torn between two views: We’re in something like the 1970s or we’re in something like the 1930s,” said Christopher Watling, head of London-based research firm Longview Economics, referring to the two worst periods of economic pain in the last century.\x0a
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    But if the newfound caution of American banks is prudent in the long run, the immediate impact is amplifying the troubles with the economy. The Federal Reserve has been lowering interest rates aggressively to make money flow more loosely and to spur economic activity.

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    The financial system is not going along: As banks hold on to their dollars, mortgage rates are climbing. So are borrowing costs for corporations.

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    \x0a Oil prices fell harder than they have in 17 years Tuesday, as fears that record fuel prices are spreading broad economic pain exacerbated the third big sell-off in just over a week.\x0a
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    \x0a Q: How can I make sure my money is safe? A: All deposit accounts worth $100,000 and less are automatically insured by the FDIC. Many retirement accounts, such as IRAs and 401(k)s, are insured to $250,000 per person. But since it’s a person’s aggregate deposits, and not their individual accounts, that are insured, any amounts over $100,000 deposited at any one bank are not covered.\x0a
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    \x0a Second, the housing bubble was immense; see the figure above, taken from the always excellent Calculated Risk. Fannie and Freddie only guaranteed conforming loans — loans that weren’t that big, didn’t have exotic financial features, and required a substantial downpayment. But so what? If real prices of houses in places like LA return to historical norms — and there’s no reason to think they won’t — many, many borrowers with conforming loans will end up with big negative equity anyway, and this in turn will produce a lot of defaults. This crisis is a long way from being over.\x0a
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    \x0a FHA loans are bundled into mortgage-backed securities by the Government National Mortgage Association. Ginnie Mae mortgages, unlike those securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, carry the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. So, while fears about the capital adequacy of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are dominating the marketplace, the expansion of FHA, either through administration diktat (FHASecure) or congressional legislation, poses a direct risk to us, the taxpayers.\x0a
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